BEAUTIFUL VIEW

Congress has strong interests in future automotive innovation. First, the technologies and vehicle systems promise to increase substantially automotive fuel economy, which would reduce the oil use and carbon dioxide emissions of the U.S. and worldwide fleet of automobiles and light

trucks. U.S. oil imports have recently reached 50 percent of total U.S. oil consumption, and the Energy Information Administration projects that imports will reach 60 percent by 2010, if technological improvement continues in a “business as usual” manner. These increases in import

levels have strong implications for U.S. energy and economic security (see box 2-2), and a sharp decrease in these imports would represent an important benefit to the nation. Moreover, the spread of such technologies worldwide could ease pressures on global oil markets.

The reductions in carbon dioxide emissions may be a substantial benefit, as well. Carbon dioxide is a “greenhouse gas” that traps heat in the atmosphere. Scientists fear that increasing levels of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, will cause substantial warming of the earth’s atmosphere and extremely negative impacts on society (see box 2-3). The United States is the world’s largest source of greenhouse gases, and its fleet of light-duty vehicles is responsible for about 15 percent of its total emissions. The United States is a party to international agreements that call for all nations to reduce their greenhouse emissions; a rapid shift to more fuel-efficient automotive technology would greatly simplify the task of complying with these international commitments.

Second, some of the advanced technologies may reduce emissions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides and thus help reduce urban concentrations of ozone. Many U.S. citizens live in urban areas that still do not comply with national ambient air quality standards for ozone. Box 2- 4 (at the end of this chapter) discusses several air quality and emissions issues associated with light-duty vehicles.

Third, Congress also has oversight responsibilities for federal expenditures of several hundred million dollars yearly for R&D on advanced automotive technologies. This oversight encompasses PNGV and other programs, as well as the Environmental Protection Agency’s decisionmaking about the application of the Ozone Transport Commission and several northeastern states to adopt all or part of California’s LEV program, including its ZEV mandates. Understanding the technical promise, state of development, and potential costs of the candidate technologies will be essential to exercising this oversight.

Fourth, the automotive industry and industries directly related to it5 are a critical sector of the U.S. economy, employing an estimated 4.6 million people and accounting for 5 percent of all U.S. employment in 1991.6 Motor vehicle manufacturers and suppliers generated annual shipments totaling $236 billion in 1992--4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product.7 Sales of assembled vehicles and vehicle parts are fiercely competitive, with foreign-owned automakers capturing 25 percent of U.S. passenger car sales and 23.7 percent of the vehicle parts and accessories markets in 1991. * All three domestic manufacturers export vehicles, and both Ford and General Motors have major positions in the European market. Advocates of rapid innovation in the industry view the development of advanced technologies as critical to the domestic manufacturers’ efforts to retain and increase U.S. market share and expand market share overseas. In fact, the White House’s original press release for the PNGV stressed “strengthening U.S. competitiveness” as the

key goal of this effort:

The projects developed under this agreement are aimed at technologies that will help propel U.S. industry

to the forefront of world automobile production. It will help ensure that U.S. jobs are not threatened by the

need to meet environmental and safety goals and that world pursuit of such goals will translate into a demand for U.S. products, not foreign products. This means preserving jobs in a critical American industry.

Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions

of a Super-Efficient Family Car

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